Thursday, October 31, 2019
Organisational Learning and Knowledge Management at General Electric Essay
Organisational Learning and Knowledge Management at General Electric - Essay Example This is much higher than the industry average, due largely to the knowledge management systems in place at this multi-national enterprise. General Electric is a top-down, centralized management hierarchy with divisional management reporting to executive leadership at company headquarters, led by Chairman Jeffrey Immelt. In order to establish appropriate cost control and generalized leadership controls, the company requires this centralized organizational structure due to the interdependence between all divisions and the high volume of employees at GE. The centralized nature of General Electric somewhat confounds the traditionalist viewpoint of knowledge management systems, as it is generally recognised that in order to effectively manage knowledge, employees must be more interactive in decision-making through autonomous learning and job role functioning (Davenport, Jarvenpaa, and Beers, 1996; Swan, Scarbrough and Robertson, 2002). The centralized structure of General Electric is what prompted analysis of this particular business case as it defies the argument that a decentralized structure ensures more efficient knowledge management processes. In order to manage knowledge and promote organizational learning, GE relies on technology, experiential learning processes, the SECI model promoted by Nonaka, and bounded rationality as key approaches to facilitate KM practices. GE is governed by leadership that understands the complexities of multi-national business operations. Offers Jack Welch, previous CEO of GE, ââ¬Å"you canââ¬â¢t manage what you canââ¬â¢t measureâ⬠(Seymour 2008: 28). Time constraints, the practical market environment and its unpredictability in certain markets, and the differing cultural dimensions of diverse employee populations create difficulty in creating concrete and time-sensitive decisions without recognizing the boundaries associated with rational decision-making. Thus, GEââ¬â¢s approach to knowledge management is based on p racticality rather than ideology which drives aspects of its cultural development focus and short-term business objective planning. This report highlights the knowledge management and learning practices at GE with a focus on the systems in place to promote such activities. GE cultures, systems, structure, and practices General Electric follows the SECI model which focuses on the relationship between socialization, externalization, combination, and internalization. Despite its centralized hierarchy, General Electric prides itself on its commitment to building positive interpersonal relationships between management and employees, building a culture of innovation, cooperation, team work, and loyalty. Thus, against the SECI model, GE is most closely focused on socialization in order to effectively manage knowledge and promote organizational learning. The knowledge that resides within GE is largely tacit, this being the knowledge that is largely intangible and attached closely to individ ual implicit expertise (Dinur 2011).
Tuesday, October 29, 2019
International Relations Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words
International Relations - Essay Example This would involve the Americans thinking the worst about Iran and to act out of self-interest. This probably would mean that Iran would be bombed. The second approach could be a liberal one which would involve the U.S. acting within the bounds of the international system. Both of these approaches will be explored in this brief essay. Realism involves looking at the political system in a way that takes self-interest as the paramount motivator for actors. There is not really any such thing as altruism in this theory, only power and efforts to accumulate power. In order to have power, a country must have security (Bell, 2008, p. 25). For the United States, Iran represents a serious security threat to the world order it has established. Iran threatens Israel and to a less extent Saudi Arabia. A lot of the rhetoric from Iran is poisonous and also suggests Iran is a threat. Washington can only take Iran at its word when it says that it wants to destroy Israel, America's ally. The way that Iran treats its own people lends all of this credence too. Because of these factors, the United States should act decisively. Clearly, negotiation has not been successful. For many American realists, the only thing that Iran will understand is force. Following this theory through to its conclusion, it seems necessary for America to bomb Iran. Politicians like Dick Cheney might be described as realists.
Sunday, October 27, 2019
Literature Review Of Forecasting And Definitions Business Essay
Literature Review Of Forecasting And Definitions Business Essay Forecasting is supposed to be one of the oldest management activities. In biblical times there were frequent allusions to clairvoyants and prophets. Nowadays it is becoming increasingly necessary for companies to make forecasts; those that do not give the prospect to their competitors a clear advantage. No forecasting is a main cause of most of todays business failures. In the past, goods could be sold on company reputation alone and forecasting was not too important. In todays more competitive times, sentiment does not apply, and firms that do not challenge their selves to make an accurate forecast on which to base their future production will find it increasingly difficult to survive (Lancaster G.A. Lomas R.A., 1985). Forecasting is important for many aspects of the modern business. Organisations make plans which become effective at some point in the future so they need information about prevailing circumstances (Waters, 2003). This information must be forecast; but unfortunately forecasting is a difficult situation and despite its importance, progress in many areas has been limited (Waters, 2003). According to literature forecasting can be defined: Forecasting is predicting, projecting, or estimating some future event or condition which is outside an organizations control and provides a basis for managerial planning (Golden J. et.al, 1994, p.33) Forecasting is generally used to predict or describe what will happen (for example to sales demand, cash flow, or employment levels) given a set of circumstances or assumptions (Waddell D., et.al, 1994, p.41) Forecasting is a projection into the future of expected demand, given a stated set of environmental conditions (Mentzer J.T. Moon M.A., 2005, p.9) 2.3 Importance of Forecasting Todays globalized business market, the systematic move from push to pull manufacturing, and the rise in consumer oriented economies, have led to a much more complex forecasting world (Lapide, 2006). Forecasters are being asked to create plans for expanding geographies, increased numbers of sales channels, and broader, more diverse, and shorter life cycle product lines. This complexity means that markets are more dynamic and the business environment is not stable (Lapide, 2006). The importance of forecasting is finding in a great range of planning and decision making circumstances. It is essential to mention those perspectives that forecasting can become a useful tool for management in many departments of an organization. In marketing, a great amount of decisions can be improved significantly by connect them with dependable forecasts of market size and market characteristics (Makridakis and Wheelwright, 1989). Having this in mind for example, a company that produces and sells electrical devices should be able to forecast what the demand will be for each of its products by geographic region and type of consumer (Makridakis and Wheelwright, 1989). In production an essential need of forecasting is the area of product demand. This relates with the both prediction of volumes mix so as the organization can plan its production schedule and organize appropriate its inventories (Makridakis and Wheelwright, 1989). Another area that the recent years have linked a lot with forecasting is finance and accounting. These departments must forecast cash flows and the rates at which various expenses and revenues will occur if they are to maintain company liquidity and operating efficiiency (Makridakis and Wheelwright, 1989). Due to the nowadays difficult economic conditions that the whole business markets face up the importance of forecasting has become more imperative than ever. Marketing practitioners regard forecasting as an important part of their jobs. For example, in Dalrymple (1975), 93% of the companies sampled pointed out that sales forecasting was one of the most critical aspects, or a very important aspect of their companys success. Also Jobber, Hooley and Sanderson (1985), in a survey of 353 marketing directors from British textile firms, found that sales forecasting was the most common of nine activities on which they reported (Armostrong J. S. et. al, 2005). Moreover Dalrymple (1987), in a survey among 134 US companies, found that 99% prepared formal forecasts when they developed written marketing plans. Winklhofer et. al (1996) notes some basic factors that the importance of forecasting has become widely essential for the organizations in recent years: The increasing complexity of organizations and their environments led to difficulties for decision makers to take account of all the factors relating to the future growth of the organization into account; Organizations have moved towards more systematic decision making that contains explicit justifications for individual actions, and formalized forecasting is one way that these actions can be maintained; The development of the forecasting methods has enables not only forecasting experts but also managers to become familiar with these techniques. 2.4 Forecasting Methods Moving on, the next step is to present and to analyze the forecasting methods. Forecasting methods can be divided in three basic categories: a) Quantitative or Statistical b) Qualitative or Judgmental c) Time Horizon 2.5 Quantitative or Statistical Quantitative Forecasts base on mathematical models and suppose that past data and other relevant factors can be combined into reliable predictions of the future (The Journal of Business Forecasting, fall 2000). In preparing a quantitative forecast it should begin with a number of observed values, past data, or observations (Makridakis and Wheelwright, 1989). These observations may represent many things, from the actual number of units sold to the cost of producing each unit to the number of people employed (Makridakis and Wheelwright, 1989). Quantitative Forecasts can be divided into two alternative options; projective and casual. 2.5.1 Projective Methods These methods rely on historical data and they are known as time-series. These can be used to discover systematic, seasonal deviations in the data, cyclical patterns, trends and growth rates of the trends (Korpela J. et.al, 1996, p.162). Time-series analyze the data to find out which patterns exist and then develop a suitable forecast equation (Mentzer T. and Mark A.M., 2005). The main forecasting techniques included in this category are moving averages, exponential smoothing and a model for trend and seasonality. A short review of these methods follows. Moving Average Moving average takes account of the calculation of the average of the sample and then forecast the next period having as a driver this average. This is a proper method in order to predict from a series of data which has shown regular historical patterns and where there is a long series. Also they are suitable of predicting seasonal sales but they cant predict accurate rapid modifications in markets. Exponential Smoothing Exponential smoothing is the most popular and cost effective of the statistical methods. It bases on the principle that the latest data should be weighted more heavily and smoothers out cyclical variations to forecast the trend (Armostrong J. S. et. al, 2005). It relies on the idea that as data gets older it becomes less relevant and should be given less weight (Waters, 2003). In order to make this calculation it is needed the old average, the actual new demand and a weighting factor (Wild, 2002). Model for seasonality and trend The techniques that have been discussed so far have assumed that the basic underlying pattern of the past sales data has been horizontal. Waters (2003) proposes a model for use under some specific circumstances such as seasonality and trend in the demand. Demand can be divided in separate parts and more specifically: a) underlying value, which characterizes the main demand that should be adjusted for seasonality and trend b) trend which is the change in demand, c) seasonality which is the cyclical variation around the trend and finally d) noise which is a random effect. 2.5.2 Casual Methods The core assumption behind the casual methods is to use refined and specific information concerning variables to develop a correlation between a lead event and the event being forecasted (Korpela J. et.al, 1996, p.162). The idea based on the hypothesis that there is a discernible relationship between the forecasted variable and a measurable independent variable (Lancaster G.A. Lomas R.A., 1985). A typical example of casual methods is regression method. Regression Method By using a regression method the demand forecast is based on a relationship of one event to another. The use of regression method requires a large amount of data for the forecast variable and the casual variables. 2.6 Qualitative or Judgmental Qualitative Forecasts (The Journal of Business Forecasting, fall 2000) are based on opinions, knowledge and skills rather than more formal analysis. They are used where there is no historical data. These types of forecasts are one of the simplest and widely used forecasting approaches available (Makridakis and Wheelwright, 1989). Its core idea rely on the corporation of the executives by discussing and deciding as a group what their best estimate for is for the item to be forecast (Makridakis and Wheelwright, 1989). The most important judgmental methods are Delphi, Market Surveys and Historical Analogy. Delphi In the Delphi method at least two rounds of forecasts are obtained independently from a small group of experts. This group can be between five and twenty experienced and suitable experts and poll them for their forecasts and reasons (Armstrong J.S, et.al, 2005). The experts never actually meet and typically do not know who the other panel members are (Wisniewski, 2006). After each round, the experts forecasts summed up and reported back to the experts (Armstrong J.S., 2006). The cycle can go on from a second to a third round and so on if appropriate (Lancaster G.A. Lomas R.A., 1985). Typically the Delphi method is used to produce a narrow range of forecasts rather than a single view of the future (Wisniewski, 2006). Market surveys Logic dictates that the most sensible approach to preparing a sales forecast might be ask ones customers (Lancaster G.A. Lomas R.A., 1985). It is a simple matter to ask customers what their likely purchases will be for the period it is desired to forecast. So companies make surveys in order to collect these data from customers and then by analysing their answers produce the forecasts. This method is best used when the number of users is small, when they are likely to state their purchasing intention with reasonable accuracy and when the forecaster knows the extent of competition in the market-place and the companys likely share of the total market (Lancaster G.A. Lomas R.A., 1985, p. 131). Historical Analogy Under limited circumstances it may be possible to produce forecasts based on observed patterns of some similar variable in the past (Wisniewski, 2006).The concept of this method based on the product life-cycle which assumes that the most of the products follow the reasonable stages of introduction, growth, maturity, decline (Lancaster G.A. Lomas R.A., 1985) as the figure 2.1 shows. The product life-cycle theory has been applied in many industries and has proved useful in identifying future strategies for products and services (Lancaster G.A. Lomas R.A., 1985). Maturity Sales/Profit Decline Growth Introduction Time Figure 2.1: Product life cycle Source: (Wisniewski M. (2006), Quantitative Methods for Decision Makers (4th Edition), Prentice Hall, p. 295) 2.7 Time Horizon Forecasts can be classified in terms of time span they cover in the future. The basic types of time horizon forecasts are long-term, medium-term and short-term (Korpela J. et.al, 1996, p.161). The long-term forecasts cover a time span of 3-10 years and they are used in the analysis of standard commitments and can be characterized as strategic decisions. The medium-term forecasts are made for one year to support production planning in the face of highly cyclical demand and can be characterized as tactical decisions. Finally short-term forecasts cover a time of one week to three months and they are used to control manufacturing levels and stock replenishment in the face of short demand variation. Short-term forecasts are concerned for operational decisions (Korpela J. et.al, 1996; Waters, 2003). 2.8 Forecast Error Inaccurate forecasts are the single most common problem that every company faces. Nowadays due to the rise of the technology there are many events or areas that can be predicted such as 1) seasonality, 2) average relationships, 3) average cyclical patterns, 4) emerging technological trends and their influence and many other factors. But on the other hand because future is something unknown there are always situations that are very difficult to predict such as 1) special events, 2) competitive actions or reactions, 3) sales of new products, 4) the start and depth of recessions, 5) changes in trends, 6) changes in relationships or attitudes, 7) and technological innovations (Makridakis and Wheelwright, 1989). Golden J. et.al, 1994, points out three ways-aspects that can reduce the forecast error by taking into consideration the followings: Knowing the market: take the pulse of those who will actually buy and use the product. Be independent. Deflate forecasts for a margin of safety. It is generally known that every forecaster knows that he/she should measure forecast errors. Most of them do it however only for the reason to see how well they are doing. The important is to measure forecasting errors for two primary reasons: to learn from them and to manage demand risk (Lapide L., 2007). Regarding learning from them, forecasts errors should be analyzed to access where errors are too high or have gotten to large so that more focus can be placed in those areas for improvement (Lapide L., 2007). Regarding managing for demand risk, users of the forecast need to know how accurate they are in order to leverage risk management strategies designed to mitigate the risk (Lapide L., 2007). 2.9 Forecasting methods criteria When carrying out market demand forecasts, one often confronts with the problem of the inappropriate selection of a forecast method. It should be noted that in every actual forecast situation methods have their advantages and disadvantages, hence, it is important to define and analyse forecast method selection criteria (Pilinkiene, 2008). In order to select the appropriate method several criteria should be considered such as a) forecast accuracy degree, b) time span, c) amount of necessary initial data, d) forecast costs, e) result implementation and applicability level (Pilinkiene, 2008). According to Cox and Mentzer study (Table 2.1) (1984;cited by Mentzer and Kahn,1995) identified accuracy (92%) and credibility (92%) as top criteria for choosing a forecast technique. Criteria Sample Size % Important Accuracy 205 92 Credibility 206 92 Customer Service Performance 199 77 Ease of Use 206 75 Inventory Turns 198 55 Amount of Data Required 205 46 Cost 205 41 Return on Investment 199 35 Table 2.1: Top criteria for choosing a forecast technique (Source: Mentzer J.T Kahn K.B., (1995) Forecasting Technique Familiarity, Satisfaction, Usage, and Application, Journal of Forecasting, vol.14, p.474) Moreover another important research made by Yokum and Armstrong (1995) (Table 2.2) which based in a survey among 322 experts in forecasting identified the most important criteria. There were 94 researchers, 55 educators, 133 practitioners (i.e. forecast preparers) and 40 decision makers (i.e. forecast users). From this study accuracy was the dominant criterion -rated 6.2 on average-, next was timeliness in providing forecasts, and cost savings resulting from improved decisions. After that five other criteria rated based on ease such as ease of use. Mean agreement rating Question Avg. Decision Maker (DM) Practitioner (PR) Educator (ED) Researcher (RS) Accuracy 6.20 6.20 6.10 6.09 6.39*DM,PR,ED Timeliness in providing forecasts 5.89 5.97 5.92 5.82 5.87 Cost savings resulting from improved decisions 5.75 5.97 5.62 5.66 5.89 Ease of interpretation 5.69 5.82 5.67 5.89 5.54 Flexibility 5.58 5.85*PR,ED,RS 5.63 5.35 5.54 Ease in using available data 5.54 5.79 5.44 5.52 5.59 Ease of use 5.54 5.84*PR,RS 5.39 5.77*PR, RS 5.47 Ease of implementation 5.41 5.80*PR,ED,RS 5.36 5.55 5.24 Incorporating judgmental input 5.11 5.15 5.19 5.12 4.98 Reliability of confidence int. 4.90 5.05 4.81 4.70 5.09 Development cost(computer, human resources) 4.86 5.10 4.83 5.02 4.70 Maintenance cost (data storage, modifications) 4.73 4.72 4.73 4.75 4.71 Theoretical relevance 4.40 3.72 4.43*DM 4.20*DM 4.81*DM *denotes significantly higher ratings (p Table 2.2: Importance of criteria in selecting a forecasting technique (scale- 1 unimportant to 7 important) (Source: Yokum, J. J.S. Armstrong (1995) Beyond Accuracy: Comparison of criteria Used to Select Forecasting Methods, International Journal of Forecasting, 11, p. 593) 2.10 Planning Practices for Improving Forecasting After the analysis of the available forecasting methods and their selection criteria the next step is to propose some planning practices that can improve forecasting, It is known that these practices are not necessary best fit with every company and before someone wants to implement them an evaluation of companys core practices should be made. That can help a company to identify its advantages and disadvantages in order to survive in todays tough market environment and with the help of these practices can become the leader of the market. The complexity and uncertainty that exist in the todays business environment creates many problems to every function of a company. This also affects supply chain management which its initial target is to meet the needs of the final consumer by supplying the right product at the right place, time and price (Helms et.al, 2000). This complexity elevates forecasting accuracy and effectiveness as an elusive target. Many companies are, however, making significant, improvements by using an approach that supports and facilitates the concept of supply chain management by improving the forecasting practices (Helms et.al, 2000). So the planning practices that can improve forecasting are: a) Sales and Operation Planning (SOP) and b) Collaborative Planning Forecasting and Replenishment (CPFR). These practices will be analyzed and explained in the following subchapters. 2.10.1 Sales and Operation Planning****FRAMEWORKS*** Sales and Operating Planning (SOP), is a cross-functional process that brings together teams of individuals on a routine basis to plan for where businesses are going on a operational/tactical basis and is considered a supply chain best practice (The Journal of Business Forecasting, 2005; Lapide, 2006). Sales and Operations Planning (SOP) has emerged as a powerful decision-making tool for executives and managers (Wallace et.al, 2005). It is a set of decision making process that 1) balances demand and supply, 2) links a companys day-to-day operations with its strategic and business plans and 3) integrates operational planning with financial planning (Wallace et.al, 2005). ***ÃŽâ⠢ÃŽà £ÃŽà ©ÃŽà £ ÃŽà ÃŽââ¬Ë ÃŽÃ
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âÃŽââ¬Ë ÃŽââ¬Å"ÃŽâ⠢ÃŽââ¬Ë ÃŽà ¤ÃŽââ¬Ë 1,2,3** Each team member brings to the process a specific perspective during the development of supply and demand plans/forecasts (Lapide, 2006). Each SOP team member may have to generate, review and revise demand forecasts that reflect the aspects of a business with which they are most familiar (Lapide, 2006). SOP, leverages Supply-Demand Matching, an operating principle that involves balancing supply and demand over time in order to satisfy demand, optimize operations, and minimize wasted resources (The Journal of Business Forecasting, 2005). Under an SOP process, a companys sales and marketing plans are aligned with the plans of operations, logistics, manufacturing, and procurement in order to jointly optimize future demand-supply operations. It is a process from which the final constrained and unconstrained demand forecasts are developed and then used to drive operational planning activities (The Journal of Business Forecasting, 2005). ***ÃŽâ⬠¢ÃŽà £ÃŽââ¬â¢ÃŽ-ÃŽà £ÃŽââ¬Ë ÃŽà ¤ÃŽÃ
¸ ÃŽâ⠢ÃŽà ÃŽà ¤ÃŽâ⬠¢ÃŽà ¡ÃŽà ÃŽâ⬠¢ÃŽà ¤, ÃŽà ÃŽââ¬Ë ÃŽââ¬Å"ÃŽà ¡ÃŽââ¬ËÃŽà ¨ÃŽà ©*** The major input for the implementation of SP is the behavioural change of the people inside the organisation and is regarded to be as the most difficult element (Wallace, 2010). Other elements such as software tools, data and the specifics of the process may be essential, but theyre of far less significance. Taking this as a standard the point is that a successful implementation of SOP is a matter of change management. The amount of change is significant. Its not a matter of doing something better; its about doing things differently-to be better (Wallace, 2010). In order to understand SOP process in is important to present and explain the four fundamentals which are demand and supply, volume and mix figure 2.2. Volume (How much?, Rates, Product families) Supply Demand Mix (Which ones?, Timing/Sequence, Products/SKUs) Figure 2.2: The Four Fundamentals Source: Wallace T. Stahl B., (2005), Sales Operation Planning- The Next Generation, pp.6) SOP is a tool to balance demand and supply at the volume level. It deals with rates of sales and production, aggregate inventories and backlogs. It is typically expressed in product families or other aggregate groupings; it answers the question how much. At the mix level the matter is about with which individual products run first, second, third and which customer orders will ship when. It answers the question which ones giving the details (Wallace et.al, 2005). Another important mission for SOP is to tie together the companys operational plans with its financial plans. The financial plans represent, critically essential evident, to deliver X amount of revenue and profit dollars for a specific period of the year. These commitments are made to some very important people such as the corporate office, the board of the directors, the Wall Street and ultimately to owners of the business: the stockholders (Wallace et.al, 2005). On the other hand, the operational plans focus on things like procurement, production, sales, inventories and so on. When these operational plans are not aligned with the business and financial plans, there is a detach. (Wallace et.al, 2005). 2.10.1.1 Sales and Operation Planning Benefits Implementing SOP in a business the benefits will be essential and immediate. These benefits can be categorized into two groups, the hard benefits and the soft benefits. As far as it concerns the hard benefits these can be the following (Wallace et.al, 2005): Higher Customer Service, by developing the ability to ship on time and complete at a higher rate than before SOP. Lower Finished Goods Inventories, by doing a better job of shipping to customers with lower, not higher, inventories. Shorter Customer Lead Times, through an enhanced ability to manage the customer order backlog and keep it at a low level. More Stable Production Rates, due to the ability to predict the future shifts in customer demand sooner and thus make smaller adjustments to production rates. Higher Productivity, by avoiding extreme fluctuations in production volumes with their attendant layoffs and rehiring. Moving on to the soft benefits these include (Wallace et.al, 2005): Enhanced Teamwork, at both the executive and operating management levels, resulting from the holistic view of the business that SOP provides. Better Decisions, by decreasing effort and time. SOP offers, increases effectiveness which improves the quality and the structure of decisions on demand and supply issues. Greater Accountability and Control, due to the backward and forward visibility that SOP provides. 2.10.1.2 Examples of Implementing Sales and Operation Planning a) Coca-Cola Midi (CCM): In France there is a manufacturing regional plant that produces -over 700 SKUs, encompassing 79,000 tons- soft drinks concentrates and juice beverages bases for Europe, Asia and Africa. SOP was implemented at CCM when the plant was started in 1991. SOP is for CCM the backbone for planning, manufacturing and supply-chain activities. SOP enables disciplined and formalized communications across the company, and between all the suppliers, partners and customers. Continuous improvement in customer service, inventory management, obsolete products, and freight costs were some of SOP benefits after the implementation. (www.partnersforexcellence.com). b) ***ÃŽà ÃŽââ¬Ë ÃŽââ¬â¢ÃŽââ¬ËÃŽâ⬠ºÃŽà © ÃŽââ¬ËÃŽâ⬠ºÃŽâ⬠ºÃŽÃ
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âÃŽââ¬Ë*** 2.10.2 Collaborative Planning Forecasting Replenishment (CPFR) Collaborative planning forecasting and replenishment (CPFR), is a revolutionary business practices where in trading partners use technology and a standard set of business processes for Internet-based collaboration on forecasts and plans for replenishment (KJR Consulting, 2002). CPFR can be categorized into these collaborative business practices that enabled trading partners to have visibility into ones other critical demand, order forecasts and promotional forecasts. The objective of CPFR is to improve efficiencies across the extended supply chain, reducing inventories, improving service levels and increasing sales (KJR Consulting, 2002). Wal-Mart and Warner-Lambert embarked on the first CPFR pilot, involving Listerine products, in 1991. In their pilot, Wal-Mart and Warner-Lambert used special CPFR software to exchange forecasts. Supportive data, such as past sales trends, promotion plans, and even the weather, were often transferred in an iterative fashion to allow them to converge on a single forecast in case their original forecast differed (Avin Y., 2001). As a result of CPFR implementation Warner-Lamberts service levels increased from 87% to 98%, while the lead times to deliver the product decreased from 21 to 11 days (Boone T. et.al, 2000).***ÃŽà ÃŽââ¬Ë ÃŽâ⬠ÃŽà © ÃŽ-ÃŽÃ
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âÃŽ-ÃŽà ÃŽâ⠢ÃŽââ¬Ë** Also this pilot was very successful, having as a result an increase in Listerine sales and better fill rates, having also a reduction on inventory investment (Avin Y., 2001). The key idea behind CPRF is that the trading partners (retailer and manufacturer), work together in order to produce a common forecast. Both the retailer and the manufacturer collect market intelligence on product information, store programs etc., and share it in real-time over the Internet. In most cases, the retailer owns the sales forecast; if the manufacturer agrees with the forecast, automatic replenishments are made to the retailer via predetermined business contracts so that a specific level of inventory or customer service is maintained (Boone T. et.al, 2000). In the case that the retailer and the manufacturer cant agree on the forecasts or if there are exceptions, such as unusual demand season or a store opening, the forecasts are reconciled manually. An important point is before the implementation of CPFR when the partners should agree on several key questions such as how to measure service levels and stock-out, how to set inventory and service targets (Boone T. et.al, 2000). The difference between CPFR and other business process tools and initiatives, such as Efficient Consumer Response (ECR), is that the other models require critical mass before any benefits are realized. Promotional plans and the business goals are the most famous areas of collaboration between the trading partners. After that order/replenishment plans, inventory status and sales forecast seems to be very critical themes for this relationship. 2.10.2.1 CPFR Process Model ***ÃŽà ÃŽââ¬Ë ÃŽà ¤ÃŽÃ
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¡ÃŽââ¬ËÃŽà ¤ÃŽâ⠢*** 2.10.2.2 CPFR Benefits There have been recorded and identified many benefits of CPFR. The CPFR documents that are available on the VICS Committee sites show that there is a 30%-40% improvement in forecast accuracy, significant increases in customer service, sales increase between 15% and 60% and reduction in days of supply 15%-20% (Sheffi Y., 2002). AMR Research (2001) reported a range of benefits that came through CPFR implementation in many companies and there are divided into retailer benefits and manufacturer benefits as it is shown in table 2.3. Retailer Benefits Typical Improvement Better store shelf stock rates 2% to 8% Lower inventory levels 10% to 40% Higher sales 5% to 20% Lower logistics costs 3% to 4% Manufacturer Benefits Typical Improvement Lower inventory levels 10% to 40% Faster replenishment cycles 12% to 30% Higher sales 2% to 10% Better customer service 5% to 10% Table 2.3: Typical CPFR Benefits Source: Sheffi Y.,(2002), The value of CPFR, RIRL Conference Proceedings As far as it concerns the retailers benefits the highest is the reduction in inventory levels which has a drop from 10% to 40%. After that the increase in sales from 5% to 20% is another essential benefit. On the other hand the manufacturers benefits relate again with a elimination in inventory levels from 10% to 40% and also it offers a faster replenishment cycles from 12% to 30%. In accordance with a questionnaire constructed by KJR Consulting and sent via e-mail to 130 GMA (Grocery Manufacturers of America) companies that have implement CPFR best practice a great range of benefits raised that can indicate the importance of CPRF for the modern complexity businesses. These benefits have been categorized in the following Figure 2.1. Figure 2.4: Anticipated Benefits of CPFR Sou
Friday, October 25, 2019
The Repetitive, Meditative Style of Lawrences Birds, Beasts, and Flowe
The Repetitive, Meditative Style of Lawrence's Birds, Beasts, and Flowers D. H. Lawrence is not a formalist. He derives his free verse style from prolonged experience with imaginative essays in which he objectively and vividly contemplates things, people, and places in their singleness rather than in their relationship to each other. Lawrence's purpose, according to Gilbert, is "knowledge through meditation": he essays "to know something . . . intuitively . . . obliquely . . . fragmentarily; not through orderly ratiocination, but through emotional perception." As his style developed, Lawrence's essays became "increasingly idiosyncratic, increasingly elliptical, spontaneous and jazzy, as though reflecting the process rather than the product of thought." Gilbert finds Birds, Beasts, and Flowers, Lawrence's sixth volume of poetry, written in a "casual, improvisational, unfinished style" that "functions not only as a means of communication but [also] as a process of discovery" (131-32). Building on Gilbert's studies, an examination of "Fruits," the first sequence of the nine-part Birds, Beasts, and Flowers, reveals that Lawrence's repetitive, meditative style employs three types of repetition. "Fruits," an archetypal sequence about eating fruit and being changed by its magical properties, admits readers into Lawrence's meditations and his Blakeian journey to the natural world (Gilbert 333). The poet/narrator tantalizes his prissy countrymen by suggestively dangling fruits that hold "a secret that can be experienced with the senses, but cannot be grasped intellectually" (Lockwood 105). Lawrence accomplishes his poetic journey through revisions of myths. The opening poem, "Pomegranate," which alludes to the myth of Pers... ...h life with "family and friends" (Unterecker 241). Works Cited French, Roberts W. "Lawrence and American Poetry." The Legacy of D. H. Lawrence, Jeffrey Meyers, ed. New York: St. Martin's P, 1987. 109-34. Gilbert, Sandra M. Acts of Attention: The Poems of D. H. Lawrence. Carbondale: Southern Illinois UP, 1990. Lawrence, D. H. Birds, Beasts, and Flowers. New York: Thomas Seltzer, 1923. Lockwood, M. J. A Study of the Poems of D. H. Lawrence: Thinking in Poetry. Houndsmills, England: MacMillan P, 1987. Murfin, Ross C. The Poetry of D. H. Lawrence: Texts and Contexts. Lincoln: U of Nebraska P, 1983. Unterecker, John. "Of Father, of Son: On "Fergus Falling," "After Making Love We Hear Footsteps," and Angling, a Day." On the Poetry of Galway Kinnell: The Wages of Dying, Howard Nelson, ed. Ann Arbor: U of Michigan P, 1987. 227-41.
Thursday, October 24, 2019
Brazil Employees Expectations Essay
In Brazil the maximum working hours per week are usually 40 to 44 hours, depending upon whether the employee works 5 or 6 days a week. The Brazilian Labour Law prescribes an annual vacation of 30 days which should be taken all at once or divided in two parts (one half must be of at least 20 days). Brazilian workers are eligible for full-time employment already at the age of 14 but there are certain protective regulations covering adolescents aged 14 to 18. Brazilian labour unions There are several thousand unions and umbrella organisations in Brazil which are supposed to support full-time workers. The Brazilian Trade Union Federation (Central Unica dos Trabalhadores) has made protection of employees and health policies one of its top priorities. Yet as most employees in Brazil work without an official work contract they have no access to the support of a labour union. Link: http://www.justlanded.com/english/Brazil/Brazil-Guide/Jobs/Working-in-Brazil Employment Agreements Since labor laws are statutory in nature, labor contracts must fit squarely within their narrow parameters. Employment contracts cannot deviate from the law in any way that waives, releases, or circumvents a workerââ¬â¢s rights. Some employers get creative and choose to frame the relationship as that of an independent contractor, rather than an employee. However, structuring the relationship in that manner has little effect if a Labor court finds that the independent contractor was in fact performing activities of an employee as legally defined. Courts will consider variables such as work hours, place of work, subjectivity to the employerââ¬â¢s administrative rules, reporting requirements, and compensation, among others, in determining whether the individual is indeed an independent contractor or in fact an employee. Unfortunately for companies, courts tend to favor protecting the employee and usually grant whatever statutory benefit for which the individual has petitioned. Employee Wages and Hours After your company has established the type of relationship that it will have with the individual, it must comply with strict labor requirements. In Brazil, the minimum wage (ââ¬Å"salà ¡rio mà nimoâ⬠) is currently set by the federal government at R$545.00 per month, although some regions may require a minimum that exceeds this baseline. Accompanying the minimum wage is the concept of the workday, or jornada, defined as the time the employee is available to the employer, whether performing his function or not. A workday cannot exceed eight (8) hours per day and 44 hours a week. Employees whose working hours exceed the maximum hours of work prescribed by law earn overtime, one of the major sources of labor litigation. Generally, the employee will earn time and a half for overtime hours worked. However, if overtime is earned on weekends and holidays, then the employee will earn two times the regularly earned wage. Employees working on commission are treated no differently, and are entitled to either double or time and a half commissions for all overtime hours worked. The legal workday varies depending on the industry involved. For example, bank workers, telephone operators, and doctors enjoy shorter workdays. Shift workers are also subject to different standards. If an employee works any one shift (morning, afternoon, or night) on any given week, his or her shift must be limited to six (6) hours. Employee Benefits Brazilian employees enjoy many benefits. For example, Brazilian law calls for a ââ¬Å"thirteenth salaryâ⬠(ââ¬Å"dà ©cimo terceiroâ⬠), plus 30 days of vacation time that all employees earn at the end of each year. Disbursement of at least half of the ââ¬Å"thirteenth salaryâ⬠must be made by November, or in the month when the employee takes vacation, if he or she has solicited the thirteenth salary in January. The last portion must be paid by December 20. Employers must also comply with social contributions and the FGTS (Fundo de Garantia por Tempo de Servià §o, or ââ¬Å"Guarantee Fund for Time of Serviceâ⬠). Both regular earnings and the thirteenth salary are subject to the FGTS, which corresponds to an eight (8) percent withholding of the monthly salary plus 0.5 percent of social contribution by the employer. This fund provides financial support in certain employment termination situations. The federal government administers the fund through mandatory deposits in accounts opened by the employer for the employeeââ¬â¢s benefit with the Caixa Econà ´mica Federal (one of the largest government-owned banks).
Wednesday, October 23, 2019
Film Music Critique Essay
Action, suspense, love, and drama are all the makings for a great film. None of these key features to a film could have any substance or feeling without the help of music. Composers play a big role for setting the tone of the movie, developing characters, moving along or supporting action, and depicting the time and place the movie is taking place. In the movie Heat, Elliot Goldenthal does just that. Goldenthal was born in NY in 1954 and studied music under John Corigliano and Aaron Copeland. His partner is Julie Taymor and he won an Oscar for the movie Frida which Julie directed. Goldenthal has composed for several films as well as concert halls, theater and dance. He also has written an opera Grendel, which premiered in 1996 by The LA Opera Company. The movie opens with the main title fading in from black accompanied by a light string tone with horns backing them up (with a quick electric guitar when De Niroââ¬â¢s and Pacinoââ¬â¢s names appear). This sets the overall tone for the movie presenting more of a serious / dramatic feel. The LA Metro begins to immerge into the background. The music complements the train passing, closely resembling the way Quincy Jones scored the opening of In Cold Blood with the bus passing by. There is a little change to the music when Robert De Niroââ¬â¢s character appears on screen which has a jazz tone that lets the audience know that this is in the city, in this case downtown Los Angeles. The music follows De Niro to an emergency hospital. At this point the music turns more intense with guitar and a prominent bass line moving the action along. There is a use of low strings moving very rapidly in the background that helps push the action along even more as he walks through the E.à R. This music carries on when the scene cuts and goes to Val Kilmer making a purchase in a construction yard. The music connects the two characters by carrying over through the scene. It also has an ominous feel that suggest that these two characters are more than likely the villains in the movie. The scene cuts to the hero, Al Pacino, with his wife and the music abruptly stops. This distinguishes his character of the hero, from the other two villain characters. At the end of the movie Robert De Niroââ¬â¢s character is trying to escape the country with the girl while Al Pacinoââ¬â¢s character is right on his tail. There is a moment when De Niro realizes he cannot make it out with the girl and in and unspoken stare he leaves. The music matches the feeling of the moment using long drown out chords creating that sense a wanting and loss. As Pacino chases De Niro through a field the music stops to intensify the action and set up the final scene. The music fades back in shortly before Pacino shoots De Niro. The music carries into a high key riff that is repeated with strings playing four tones slowly behind the keys. The music grows louder adding more instruments such as large cymbals and carries into the credits. Goldenthalââ¬â¢s score was replaced in the final scene with Mobyââ¬â¢s ââ¬Å"God Moving Over the Face of the Water. â⬠Director Michael Mann felt that Mobyââ¬â¢s music better represented a feeling of relief, that it was over, that Pacino finally got his guy. At the same time the music related the two characters. Opposite from the beginning where the music separated the two, here it connects them demonstrating how they were not that different and had respect and admiration for each other.
Tuesday, October 22, 2019
European Automotive Industry Simulation The WritePass Journal
European Automotive Industry Simulation Part 1 Initial strategic position and intentions European Automotive Industry Simulation , p.88). The intense rivalry drives down the margins especially for the small companies. Initial resource audits The initial investment value for ABD is à £ 16, 310. 34 million and the total capital employed at the start of the simulation stood at à £ 30, 054.30 million. Intended Strategic Direction for the next 5 simulated years (decision periods) Mission Statement The mission of ABD is to be the leading provider of sheer driving pleasure and safety to Europe and beyond. The ABD brand combines dynamic performance and superb design to the customers at relatively affordable prices. Overall Target Markets and Strategy ABD motors targets mostly the younger drivers and strives to give then fun, safety, modern technology and design. The company relies heavily on advertisement as a marketing method although it also gives the products a chance to market themselves through quality and efficiency. Financial and Strategic Objectives In order for the ABD motors to establish and maintain a competitive edge, it strives to localize its operations through increased local sourcing in order to penetrate the European market. In terms of pricing the company aims at pricing its products competitively in order to attract more customers. à Assignment Part 2 Strategy development and progress against your plan over the 5à to 6 simulated years. à Your strategic analysis for each trading period ââ¬â such as changes in the macro environment (PESTEL) and competitive environment (including any changes to the industries 5 forces and critical success factors as well as to your companyââ¬â¢s internal position). à à In the round 5 results the company produced 1643 units of ABD LXY and then sold 3939 in the same period. This implies that all the units produced were sold together with some that remained from the previous round. The performance of this period on the model is an indication that the company failed to produce enough units of ABD LXY model as evidenced by the zero units in stock. This could have been as a result of the 2296 units that remained from the previous period which prompted the company to produce less of the same model. Although this decision was partly right, the company should have laid plans for immediate production of more units when they realized that the sales went up compared to the last trading period. Having zero units in stock is not healthy for the company because the inconsistencies in production cause unnecessary inconveniences to the customers. Furthermore, the market share for the model is 0.57% which is relatively low. For the ABD 400, the sales stood at 65714, and 29610 is still in stock. The market share stands at 1.26% which is not bad.à ABD A5 all the units produced were sold just like in the previous period as evidenced by the zero units in stock. The market share stands at 0.14% but the company can still take it higher given that it may not be producing enough units for the market because of the zero units in stock. Lambooo model has many units in stock but the 1.51% market share indicates that the units were produced in excess during the previous period.à For the Skittles their case is somewhat similar to that of ABD A5 although the market share is higher than it by a margin of 0.01%. b. How your short term plans and strategic objectives/tactics have been adjusted in terms of the above changes to the external environment and also your companyââ¬â¢s changing internal position à Operations strategies (capacity, production inventory changes) The operational strategies of ABD are in some ways out of touch with the reality on the ground as evidenced by the zero units in stock for some models and excess units of other models. This is not good for business as the excess units of some models are tying up funds for the other models, the company should therefore base its production depending on how first the merchandise is moving in order to improve the overall performance in terms of consistency and efficiency. Marketing strategy (4Pââ¬â¢s) In terms of the marketing strategy, the company is producing the right products as evidenced by the market share. The automobile industry has a very strong competition especially from the well established brands like Toyota, BMW, Honda and General Motors. However, the company should consider designing new products in order to improve its financial performance. In terms of pricing, the products are well priced because there is no evidence suggesting that the price of the models is affecting sales. In fact the expensive models like ABD LXY and Lambooo performed relatively well. The ABD LXY sold all the units whereas Lambooo was only second to ABD 400 in terms of total sales. In terms of promotion the company still needs to do a lot of marketing especially for model ABD 400 which still has a lot of units in stock. The same should also be done for Lamboo and all the other models in order to improve their market share. On the last item of marketing strategy which is place, the company should try to establish itself out of Europe by trying other markets like the other companies. A global approach will give it a wide customer base and in process enable it to benefit from economies of scale. a. Financial management The company does not have enough money for the chosen projects and still needs better financial and strategic plans for success in the short run. The balance sheet indicates that the company has negative net current assets, negative net total assets less current liabilities and a huge bank overdraft. à The company should therefore produce more of the well performing brands and reduce the less performing ones to raise the additional funds for reinvestment. b.à Human Resources The team has an adequate workforce that is competent and efficient. The workforce only had 3 days of strike which implies that they are relatively happy with the terms of the employment and working conditions at the company. The productivity index of 0.73 is also healthy meaning that the human resource department is working efficiently. c. Your changing corporate portfolio of products (SBUââ¬â¢s) Generally, the company made some strategic decisions aimed at improving the performance from the previous period. These decisions were fruitful for some models like the ABD LXY but some failed short of expectations like the Lambooo. In the case of the Lambooo the competitors managed to neutralize the plans of the company as the brand failed to perform as expected. à Assignment Part 3 Final Report ââ¬â A Reflective Portfolio The team ended with a closing balance of à £ -47009.05 million which is not good for the general health of the company. This poor performance is as a result of the big loss of à £ -30,554.30 million suffered by the company. The profit and loss account reveals a problem with the pricing of the final products, the sales stood at à £ 1694.44 million and the cost of sales is à £ 1386.34 million. In this case the gross profit is à £ 308.01 million which is not even enough to cover for the operational expenses and still generate revenue for the company. The implication here is that the price component of the marketing mix element has a problem. The cost of production is very high and this is weighing down heavily on the company and if the trend persists then this could even force the company out of business in the long run. The company can solve this problem by pursuing two approaches either jointly or partly. The first option is to reduce the cost of production through looking for different suppliers and adoption of better technology to reduce operational costs. This will increase the profit margin for the company. The other option is to raise the price of the final company products. However, because raising the price of the products may backfire as it may turn off some customers; it is advisable for the team to first consider lowering the cost of production. 3.1 Description of your companyââ¬â¢s successes and failures and your learningââ¬â¢s in implementing your strategy against your set mission/vision and plans as given in part one of your report. Generally the products of the company have been accepted by the consumers as evidenced by the market share of the different models. The company has managed to live to its mission statement, with the only problem now being revenue generation. This is the reason why the management now needs to come forward with better financial and strategic plans that will steer the company forward and start generating huge profits like the other companies in the industry. The first possible method is to reduce the cost of production through using better technology or getting better suppliers or even both if possible. 3.2 Include in your final report your reflections on this learning exercise This learning exercise has made me realize the essence of planning and understanding the nature of the industry before venturing into business. I have also learned that at times things do not work as planned and that it is always critical to review decisions in order to correct mistakes and also learn from the techniques used by the competitors as methods of succeeding in the competitive business environment. à 3.3 companyââ¬â¢s ââ¬Å"end gameâ⬠position (trading period 5), strategic recommendations for the next five years for the Executive company. The strategic recommendation for the company in the next five years is that it should deploy ways of lowering the cost of production. It can do this through outsourcing some of its operations to countries with lower costs of labor. This should be done in tandem with efficient and exhaustive marketing of the company products in order to generate more sales. Additionally, the company should widen its range of products so as to increase its sources of revenue. Lastly the company should adopt the concept of competitor profiling as a technique of staying ahead of the competitors in business. Competitor profiling and competitor analysis entails studying the techniques used by other companies in the industry and then devising ways of outdoing them in business. Bibliography Baines, P., Fill, C., Page, K. (2013). Essentials of marketing. Oxford: Oxford University Press. Chandrasekar, K. S. (2010). Marketing management: Text and cases. New Delhi: Tata McGraw-Hill. Edelhoff, J. (2009). The European Automobile Industry: Technological change, changing of production and changing of organization. MuÃËnchen: GRIN Verlag. Faarup, P. K. (2010). The marketing framework. Aarhus: Academica. Freeman, R. E. (2010). Strategic management: A stakeholder approach. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Jerenz, A. (2008). Revenue management and survival analysis in the automobile industry. Wiesbaden: Betriebswirtschaftlicher Verl. Gabler. Kubik, J. (2011). Analysis and evaluation of chosen resources of Volkswagen in Germany and in respect of the Indian minicar market and the role of Suzuki as a Joint Venture prospect. MuÃËnchen: GRIN Verlag GmbH. Nitschke, C. (2011). Outsourcing vs. Insourcing in the Automotive Industry The Role and Concepts of Suppliers. Munich: GRIN Verlag GmbH. Peng, M. W. (2009). Global strategy. Mason, Ohio: South-Western/Cengage Learning. Peters, N. (2011). The impact of the global downturn on the car manufacturing industry. MuÃËnchen: GRIN Verlag GmbH. Pride, W. M. (2011). Marketing principles. South Melbourne, Vic: Cengage Learning. Wells, P. E. (2010). The automotive industry in a era of eco-austerity: Creating an industry as if the planet mattered. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar. West, D. (2009). Strategic marketing. Oxford: Univ. Press. Witcher, B. J., Chau, V. S. (2010). Strategic management: Principles and practice. S.l.: Cengage Learning.
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